Performance Update

As of October 2026, Bursera Capital's total ROI is 676.19%* since the fund's inception in 2019, with Bitcoin standing at 644.26% and similar funds reaching 472.32%. Returns are -15.06%*, with similar funds reporting -9.30% and Bitcoin at -7.66%. Our Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 32.24%* with Bitcoin at 31.48% and similar funds at 13.66%.

----------------

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 31st Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions put a range on bitcoin for the first time, gave hedge funds the biggest upgrade in the report, and ranked emerging-market equities below developed markets for the first time in the series. We took JPM's own inputs and ran our own price model on top of them.

I. Bitcoin Gets a Number: 10% a Year, with 55% Volatility

KEY SIGNAL

For the first time in 31 editions, JPM put a return range on bitcoin: a 10.0% a year base case over 10 years, between a bear case of −11.2% and a bull case of +16.6%.

A First Number for Bitcoin: 10% a Year

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, built by 90+ contributors across 200+ assets, added a standalone bitcoin estimate. Its 10.0% base case is higher than every core stock, bond, REIT and gold assumption in JPM's comparison set, ahead of U.S. REITs at 8.2% and U.S. large caps at 7.5%.

Compounded over 10 years, USD 100,000 grows to about $259,000 at JPM's bitcoin base case, against about $206,000 in U.S. large caps and $171,000 in gold.

The Catch: Per Unit of Risk, It's a Tie

The headline return comes with 55% annualized volatility, 3.1 times U.S. large caps (18.0%). Run through JPM's own Sharpe formula, bitcoin and large caps tie at 0.32: the base case pays about the same per unit of risk as stocks, not more.

JPM is explicit that this is a range, not an endorsement. It keeps bitcoin out of its main allocation models and calls it “a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.” For a systematic investor, that is the point: the opportunity is real, but it is a volatility problem first, and volatility is something you model rather than guess.

II. Bursera Ran JPM's Numbers Through Our Own Price Model

KEY SIGNAL

JPM's own volatility assumption implies a far wider range than its published scenarios. In our simulation, 39% of outcomes land outside JPM's bear-to-bull range, and most of those land above it.

What We Did

JPM publishes return assumptions, not prices. We turned them into prices: 10,000 Monte Carlo price paths over 10 years, in monthly steps, starting from JPM's USD 83,000 spot reference (Sep 30, 2026). Every input is JPM's own: a 10.0% compound annual return and 55% annualized volatility. Together they reproduce JPM's stated 20.9% average-year return, a useful check that the model is consistent with the report.

What the Model Shows

Two results stand out. First, about a quarter of simulated paths finish the decade at or below today's price, even with a 10% a year median. Second, JPM's bear case sits near the bottom of the distribution while its bull case sits close to the middle, so the published range understates the upside its own volatility input implies.

From Forecast to Position Size

Here's why we bothered: a number like 10% a year feels precise, but nobody actually earns the median. You live through the path: the rough second year, the stretch where you're still below where you started, the run that makes up for it. When we read JPM's report, our first instinct wasn't to repeat the headline. It was to ask what holding bitcoin on those assumptions would really feel like.

So we built the model, ran the paths and looked hard at the spread. That habit of pressure-testing someone else's assumptions before we trust them is the same one we bring to every position we size.

A quick note on what these numbers are: our own illustration built on JPM's inputs. They aren't JPM price targets, and they aren't a Bursera forecast.

III. “Hedge Funds are Winners from this New World”

KEY SIGNAL

Hedge funds got the biggest upgrade in JPM's 2027 assumptions. Every strategy JPM tracks moved up, by as much as 190 basis points.

Upgrades Across All Six Strategies

JPM raised its median-manager return assumptions across all six hedge fund strategies. Event-driven rose 190bps to 7.1%, equity long bias 180bps to 7.3%, and diversified multi-strategy 140bps to 6.7%. On JPM's own risk-adjusted measure, diversified hedge funds score a Sharpe ratio of 0.62, the highest in the comparison set and nearly double bitcoin's or U.S. large caps' 0.32.

JPM is candid that part of the upgrade “comes in part from methodology enhancements,” so not all of it is a change in the outlook itself.

The Case for Systematic Strategies

The reasons behind the upgrade describe the environment systematic strategies are built for. JPM expects the stock-bond correlation to stay positive at 0.34, rising since 2023, which weakens the classic 60/40 hedge. It expects inflation shocks “nearly twice as often” as history. And it projects a 60/40 portfolio at 7.0% a year, rising to 7.5% with 30% in alternatives.

When stocks and bonds stop offsetting each other, diversification has to come from somewhere else: from strategies that find return in dispersion, relative value and risk management rather than in market direction. That is the core of what a quant fund does, and it is why JPM's “winners” framing reads, to us, as a description of our own approach.

JPM's figures are median-manager assumptions for broad hedge fund categories. They are not estimates for any individual fund, including Bursera.

For Bursera Capital

JPM’s 2027 assumptions describe a world that rewards process over prediction. Bitcoin gets a higher base-case return than any core asset JPM compares it with, but with three times the volatility and no better pay per unit of risk. Stocks and bonds hedge each other less. Regional rankings that held for three decades are flipping. And JPM’s largest upgrade went to hedge funds, the strategies that aim to earn returns beyond simple market direction.

As a quant fund, that is the environment our process is built for. We don’t take a published assumption at face value, we model it. Our simulation of JPM’s own inputs showed that its bitcoin range is far narrower than its volatility implies, the kind of gap that matters for position sizing and risk limits long before it shows up in returns.

We will keep testing the assumptions that drive allocations, and sharing what the data shows.

Sources and important information

• J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, 31st edition, October 2026; data as of Sep 30, 2026. Bitcoin figures pp. 46–47 (Exhibits A and B); hedge funds pp. 11, 13, 56 (Exhibit 4).
• Charts are redrawn by Bursera from JPM's published figures. The price chart, MonteCarlo results, compounded dollar values and Sharpe comparisons are Bursera calculations based on JPM's 2027 LTCMA and are not JPM price targets.

-----

*Fund I (unaudited) was open from July 2019-2021 before the Fund was transitioned to the Cayman Islands. Cumulative return net of fees, between Bursera Fund I and the continuation Fund II.

*Data from October 2026 subject to crystallization.