Performance Update

As of July 2026, Bursera Capital's total ROI is 493.76%* since the fund's inception in 2019, with Bitcoin standing at 507.59% and similar funds reaching 428.06%. Returns are 7.67%*, with similar funds reporting 4.48% and Bitcoin at 7.67%. Our Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 28.59%* with Bitcoin at 29.01% and similar funds at 26.48%.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Three developments shaped digital asset markets this week: Strategy's continued shift from Bitcoin accumulator to seller as it strengthens its capital structure, rising oil prices ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that have renewed inflation fears, and a July jobs shortfall that reset Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and reinvigorated spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. Together, these factors point to a market that remains highly reactive to corporate treasury moves and macroeconomic liquidity signals, even as institutional adoption trends continue to develop beneath the surface.

I. Strategy Turns Net Seller as It Reworks Its Capital Structure

KEY SIGNAL

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold roughly 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million in the week of August 3-9, its second consecutive weekly disposal and the latest step in a broader shift from relentless accumulation toward active balance-sheet management.

WHAT HAPPENED

The company, chaired by Michael Saylor, has sold approximately 6,948 BTC year-to-date, including 1,638 BTC in late July and another 1,690 BTC in the first week of August. The proceeds have been used to repurchase shares of STRC, the company's variable-rate preferred stock, which trades below its $100 par value, and to pay preferred dividends. Meanwhile, the company raised about $653.1 million through at-the-market sales of MSTR, its Nasdaq-listed common stock, over the period, increasing its U.S. dollar reserves to about $4.65 billion.

The company currently owns 840,447 Bitcoin, valued at more than $50 billion and equal to roughly 4% of Bitcoin's total supply, at an average cost basis of $75,385 per coin. Recent sales at around $64,000 were therefore made at a loss. Saylor has emphasized that he personally has never sold a single satoshi, characterizing the company's sales as a credit and liquidity measure rather than an abandonment of his Bitcoin thesis.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin and has long been viewed as an almost unconditional buyer whose demand ranked among the key determinants of the spot price. An extended period of net sales, even if only a modest portion of total holdings, may raise broader questions about corporate treasury management and, more specifically, about how the market values highly leveraged, Bitcoin-linked equity instruments such as STRC. The market response so far has been muted, however: the MSTR share price and STRC have begun to stabilize following the repurchases, while Bitcoin has been driven mainly by macroeconomic data rather than by flows from Strategy.

WHAT COMES NEXT

The central question is whether Strategy's shift represents a company-specific adjustment or the start of a broader change in corporate treasury behavior. Three developments will help clarify the picture:

• Strategy's weekly 8-K filings, which will show whether the buy/sell cycle continues or the recent disposals prove temporary.
• STRC's price relative to its $100 par value, a gauge of how far the company's capital-structure adjustments have progressed.
• Whether other corporate holders make similar changes to their Bitcoin treasury strategies.

II. Oil Prices Surge Ahead of CPI, Reviving Inflation Concerns

KEY SIGNAL

Brent crude climbed back toward $89 a barrel this week, gaining more than 5%, as talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked and the United States escalated economic pressure on Iran, reviving concerns about energy-driven inflation even after a moderate July CPI reading.

WHAT HAPPENED

Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled at $88.52 on Friday after rising more than 5% over the week, its advance driven by fading prospects for a near-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carried roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies before the year's Middle East conflict. Iran has said the waterway will not reopen until Washington meets its conditions, while U.S. officials indicated a naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue indefinitely, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of measures aimed at the economic isolation of Iran. Iranian-backed Houthi militants also targeted Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery. The International Energy Agency warned of a deeper global supply deficit, the widest in five years, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average around $85 a barrel in the third quarter, assuming the Hormuz constraints persist. Even after the recent climb, prices remain below last month's surge above $100 and the May peak above $110.

The move followed the July CPI release on August 12, which showed inflation moderating. Headline prices rose 0.1% for the month and 3.4% over the year, down from 3.5% in June, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually, all in line with forecasts. Energy prices fell during July, with gasoline down roughly 3% on the month, indicating that the energy-driven spike from earlier in the year had eased. Because the report reflects conditions during July, the renewed climb in crude prices since then would bear on the August reading rather than the one just released.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

Higher energy costs feed directly into headline CPI and indirectly into core CPI through transport and production costs, and a sustained increase would complicate the disinflation seen in recent months. The effect is less pronounced than in past decades, as the CPI basket now contains a larger share of services, but central banks, including the Fed, watch inflation expectations closely when energy prices rise. The tame July reading reinforced expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at its September meeting, with markets trimming the odds of a September rate increase to around 42% after the release. A renewed, oil-driven acceleration in the coming months would test that view. For digital assets, the near-term backdrop of moderating inflation and reduced expectations of further rate increases is supportive of risk assets, though persistent energy pressure represents the clearest risk to that dynamic.

WHAT COMES NEXT

With the July data in hand, attention turns to whether elevated oil prices persist and how they feed into the next round of releases:

• The August CPI report, scheduled for September 11, which will capture the recent move in energy prices and inform the Fed's September decision.
• Whether elevated oil prices carry into the Producer Price Index (PPI) report and retail sales data later this month.
• Developments around the Strait of Hormuz, including any progress in talks between Iran and Oman, which would ease the supply concerns currently supporting crude prices.

III. Weak July Jobs Report Resets Rate-Cut Bets and Revives ETF Demand

KEY SIGNAL

U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, well below expectations of about 80,000, prompting a sudden repricing of Fed rate-cut odds and inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

WHAT HAPPENED

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report on August 7 revealed the weakest jobs figures in months, sending Bitcoin above $65,000 on bets that the unexpected softness would keep the Fed from raising rates further. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew an estimated $853 million in inflows over the week, their strongest showing in months, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for the bulk over the five-day period. Spot Ether ETFs extended their own inflow streak. The recovery followed a difficult stretch in which Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $5.4 billion over the first half of 2026.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

Softer labor data reduce the likelihood of further interest-rate hikes and raise the probability of a rate cut later in the year, a positive catalyst for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Given the strong correlation between crypto and broader risk sentiment, shifts in expectations continue to move ETF flows and prices quickly. The scale and speed of the ETF recovery suggest that institutional investors were prepared to act quickly once softer jobs data reduced the likelihood of another hike. That said, ETFs remain $4.5 billion in net outflows for the year.

WHAT COMES NEXT

With rate-cut expectations freshly repriced, the coming weeks of data and Fed commentary will shape how durable the shift proves:

• The upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI releases, central to the near-term path for rate-cut expectations following the softer labor data.
• Daily spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF flow data, given how quickly institutional positioning has responded to shifting conditions.
• Fed commentary ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium later in August, for signals on how policymakers weigh labor-market softness against persistent inflation.

Closing Perspective

The developments of the past week illustrate a market still moving primarily in response to corporate treasury activity and macroeconomic signals, even as longer-term adoption trends continue to develop. Strategy's shift from consistent accumulation toward active balance-sheet management marks a notable change in posture from the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, though the limited market reaction to date suggests investors are, for now, treating it as a capital-structure decision rather than a change in conviction. On the macroeconomic side, a softer-than-expected July jobs report and a moderate July inflation reading together eased expectations of further rate increases and revived spot ETF demand, even as a renewed climb in oil prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff introduced a fresh risk to the inflation outlook in the months ahead. In our view, the speed with which institutional positioning responded to these shifts is characteristic of the current market environment, in which digital assets remain closely tied to changes in rate expectations and liquidity conditions, rather than a departure from the longer-term trajectory, and the structural factors that inform Bursera Capital's approach, including institutional adoption, market structure, and the steady expansion of digital asset infrastructure, continued to develop through the week, independent of any single data release or corporate action.

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**Data from July 2026 subject to crystallization.